Abstract：The product diffusion of Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) mainly involves two aspects, the initial purchase and the replacement purchase. The current Bass model has the macro forecast ability about initial purchasers, while the cellular automata model can effectively predict the amount of the replacement purchasers. A hybrid model by learning advantages from the Bass and cellular automata models was proposed to forecast the FMCG diffusion. The mean error of estimation values and real values form 1999 to 2006 is 4.11%, and its fitting degree is 96.7%; the perdiction values are 15%,7%,2% smaller than the real values of Chinese milk sales volumes in 2007,2008,2009 respectively. The experimental results on Chinese milk sales volume verify that the hybrid model is effective and applicable to predict the FMCG product diffusion of Chinese milk sales volumes.
张燕芳 熊海灵. 基于Bass与元胞自动机混合模型的快速消费品产品扩散研究[J]. 计算机应用, 2011, 31(12): 3305-3308.
ZHANG Yan-fang XIONG Hai-ling. Product diffusion study of fast moving consumer goods based on hybrid model of Bass and cellular automata models. Journal of Computer Applications, 2011, 31(12): 3305-3308.
2011, Vol. 31 
