关键词: Bass模型, 元胞自动机模型, 快速消费品, 扩散模型, 首次购买, 重置购买

Abstract: The product diffusion of Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) mainly involves two aspects, the initial purchase and the replacement purchase. The current Bass model has the macro forecast ability about initial purchasers, while the cellular automata model can effectively predict the amount of the replacement purchasers. A hybrid model by learning advantages from the Bass and cellular automata models was proposed to forecast the FMCG diffusion. The mean error of estimation values and real values form 1999 to 2006 is 4.11%, and its fitting degree is 96.7%; the perdiction values are 15%,7%,2% smaller than the real values of Chinese milk sales volumes in 2007,2008,2009 respectively. The experimental results on Chinese milk sales volume verify that the hybrid model is effective and applicable to predict the FMCG product diffusion of Chinese milk sales volumes.

Key words: Bass model, cellular automata model, Fast Moving Consumer Goods, diffusion model, initial purchase, replacement purchase