关键词: 物流服务供应链, 预测承诺契约, 协调, 回购, 物流能力

Abstract: To coordinate the logistics service supply chain, composed by a sub-contractor with single function and an integrator, a forecast-commitment contract was proposed. In this contract, a forecast for a future order and a guarantee to purchase a portion of it were provided by the logistics service integrator. Base on the information from the integrator, the logistics services sub-contractor made a decision on logistics capabilities investment. It provided an optimal strategy for the logistics service sub-contractor and gave the optimal forecast for the logistics service integrator. Then a buyback parameter was drawn into the "forecast-commitment" contract. The experimental results show that if the parameters are reasonable, the proposed contract can moderate the logistics services sub-contractor to invest. It shows that this contract can coordinate the whole system by achieving Pareto improvement for the logistics service supply chain and the increase in revenue for the supply chain system and integrator. The buyback parameter can improve the logistics capabilities investment of the sub-contractor at the same forecast. Finally, a numerical experiment was carried out to illustrate the forecast-commitment contract, and results verified the theoretical analysis.

Key words: logistics service supply chain, forecast-commitment contract, coordination, buyback, logistics capability