关键词: 生态安全，动态评估，集对分析，马尔可夫链，蒙特卡洛方法

Abstract: Concerning the situation that the ecological security has a lot of uncertaint factors and is dynamic, the Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory and Markov chain were combined for dynamic assessment of ecological security, and a dynamic assessment method of ecological security was proposed combining the state assessment and trend analysis. The method adopted connection degree of SPA to represent uncertain knowledge, used the connection number of SPA to classify ecological security level, and built the comprehensive evaluation model of the system. Through the analysis of the development trend of ecological security, using the ergodicity of Markov chain and statistical quality of Monte Carlo method, the state of ecological security in the next moment could be predicted. This method uses limited assessment data and historical data, dynamically assesses the development and changes of ecological security, and provides a theoretical basis for the safety management.

Key words: Ecological Security, Dynamic Assessment, Set Pair Analysis (SPA), Markov Chain (MC), Monte Carlo method