Abstract：Concerning the situation that the ecological security has a lot of uncertaint factors and is dynamic, the Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory and Markov chain were combined for dynamic assessment of ecological security, and a dynamic assessment method of ecological security was proposed combining the state assessment and trend analysis. The method adopted connection degree of SPA to represent uncertain knowledge, used the connection number of SPA to classify ecological security level, and built the comprehensive evaluation model of the system. Through the analysis of the development trend of ecological security, using the ergodicity of Markov chain and statistical quality of Monte Carlo method, the state of ecological security in the next moment could be predicted. This method uses limited assessment data and historical data, dynamically assesses the development and changes of ecological security, and provides a theoretical basis for the safety management.
石欣 张涛 雷璐宁. 基于集对分析与马尔可夫链的生态安全动态评估[J]. 计算机应用, 2014, 34(2): 519-522.
SHI Xin ZHANG Tao LEI Luning. Dynamic evaluation of ecological security based on set pair analysis and Markov chain. Journal of Computer Applications, 2014, 34(2): 519-522.
2014, Vol. 34 
