关键词: 软件可靠性, 预测, 失效数据, 灰色Elman神经网络, 航班查询系统

Abstract: The current software reliability prediction model has big prediction accuracy fluctuation and poor adaptability in field data of reliability with strong randomness and dynamics. In order to solve the problems, a software reliability prediction model based on grey Elman neural network was proposed. First, the grey GM (1,1) model was used to predict the failure data and weaken its randomness. Then the Elman neural network was utilized to build the model for predicting the residual produced by GM (1,1), and catch the dynamic change rules. Finally, the prediction results of GM (1,1) and Elman neural network residual were combined to get the final prediction outcomes. The simulation experiment was conducted by using field failure data set produced by the flight inquiry system. The gray Elman neural network model was compared with Back-Propagation (BP) neural network model and Elman neural network model, the corresponding Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Relative Error (MRE) of the three models were respectively 105.1, 270.9, 207.5 and 0.0011, 0.0021, 0.0016. The errors of gray Elman neural network prediction model were the minimum. The experimental results show that the proposed gray Elman neural network prediction model has higher prediction accuracy.

Key words: software reliability, prediction, failure data, grey Elman neural network, flight inquiry system