Allocation model of urban emergency medical supplies based on random evolution from perspective of resilience

doi:10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2022020236

Journal of Computer Applications ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 978-985.DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2022020236

• Frontier and comprehensive applications • Previous Articles

Allocation model of urban emergency medical supplies based on random evolution from perspective of resilience

Zhinan LI, Qinming LIU(), Haoyang LU

Business School，University of Shanghai for Science and Technology，Shanghai 200093，China

Received:2022-03-03 Revised:2022-05-29 Accepted:2022-06-01 Online:2022-08-16 Published:2023-03-10
Contact: Qinming LIU
About author:LI Zhinan， born in 1997， M. S. candidate. His research interests include emergency logistics.
LU Haoyang， born in 2000. His research interests include resource allocation.
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(71840003);Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(19ZR1435600);Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund of Ministry of Education(20YJAZH068)

韧性视角下基于随机演变的城市应急医疗物资配置模型

李智楠, 刘勤明(), 陆昊洋

上海理工大学管理学院，上海 200093

通讯作者: 刘勤明
作者简介:李智楠（1997—），男，浙江台州人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向：应急物流
刘勤明（1984—），男，山东日照人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向：维护调度、人工智能
陆昊洋（2000—），男，上海人，主要研究方向：资源配置。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71840003);上海市自然科学基金资助项目(19ZR1435600);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(20YJAZH068)

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the difference of health system resilience in urban areas and the random evolution of demand for emergency medical supplies， a multi-stage dynamic allocation model for emergency medical supplies based on resilience assessment was proposed. Firstly， combined with the entropy method and the K-means algorithm， the resilience assessment system and classification method of area’s health system were established. Secondly， the random evolution characteristic of demand state was designed as a Markov process， and triangular fuzzy numbers were used to deal with the fuzzy demand， thereby constructing a multi-stage dynamic allocation model of emergency medical supplies. Finally， the proposed model was solved by the binary Artificial Bee Colony （ABC） algorithm， and the effectiveness of the model was analyzed and verified by an actual example. Experimental results show that the proposed model can realize the dynamic allocation of supplies to stabilize the demand changes and prioritize the allocation of areas with weak resilience， reflecting the fairness and efficiency of emergency management requirements.

Key words: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, Markov process, public health emergency event, resilience assessment, emergency supply allocation

摘要：

针对城市辖区卫生系统韧性差异和应急医疗物资需求随机演变的情况，提出基于韧性评估的应急医疗物资多阶段动态配置模型。首先，结合熵值法和K-means算法，建立辖区卫生系统韧性评估体系及分类方法；其次，将需求状态的随机演变特性设计成Markov过程，并运用三角模糊数处理模糊性需求，从而建立应急医疗物资多阶段动态配置模型；最后，采用二进制人工蜂群（ABC）算法求解所提模型，并通过实际算例分析并验证所提模型的有效性。实验结果表明，所提模型能够实现物资的动态配置，从而使需求变化趋于平稳，并且能够优先配置韧性薄弱的辖区，体现了应急管理要求的公平性和时效性。

关键词: 人工蜂群算法, Markov过程, 突发公共卫生事件, 韧性评估, 应急物资配置

CLC Number:

TP399

Zhinan LI, Qinming LIU, Haoyang LU. Allocation model of urban emergency medical supplies based on random evolution from perspective of resilience[J]. Journal of Computer Applications, 2023, 43(3): 978-985.

李智楠, 刘勤明, 陆昊洋. 韧性视角下基于随机演变的城市应急医疗物资配置模型[J]. 《计算机应用》唯一官方网站, 2023, 43(3): 978-985.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1 Evolution of demand state

Tab. 1 Area’s health system resilience assessment indicators

准则层	指标层	功效
R_x	人均应急管理部门年度支出（单位：元）	+
	60岁及以上人口占比	-
	人口密度（单位：每平方公里人数）	-
R_s	千人执业（助理）医师数	+
	千人注册护士数	+
	千人床位数	+
	每万人三级医院数量	+
	每万人社区服务中心数量	+
R_h	卫生、社会工作、社会保障和社会组织人员占比	+
	期望寿命	+
	卫生占财政支出百分比	+
	人均国内生产总值（单位：万元）	+

Tab. 2 Correspondence between ABC and optimal material allocation model

ABC算法	优化物资配置模型
采蜜动作	优化过程
蜜源的位置	物资配置策略
蜜源的花蜜浓度	物资配置策略的适应度值
采蜜过程	计算适应度值的过程
最大花蜜浓度	最大函数值

Fig.2 Schematic diagram of algorithm steps

Fig.3 Schematic diagram of clustering results

Tab. 3 Resilience classification standards

韧性能力	韧性类别					权重
韧性能力	R₁	R₂	R₃	R₄	R₅	权重
I_CCS	7.036	8.682	12.649	16.030	22.558	1.00
R_x	4.240	4.549	3.382	1.754	1.919	0.26
R_s	2.207	1.137	4.802	9.410	13.466	0.42
R_h	0.588	2.996	4.465	4.866	7.173	0.32

Fig.4 Distribution of Shanghai health system resilience

Tab. 4 Information statistics of each area

辖区	口罩		防护服
辖区	模糊需求	状态初值	模糊需求	状态初值
A	4 000	1	1 500	1
B	5 000	1	1 000	2
C	3 000	2	1 000	2
D	2 000	3	500	2
E	6 000	1	1 000	1
F	3 000	2	500	1

Tab. 5 Probability matrix of demand state transfer for emergency supplies in each area

种类	辖区A	辖区B	辖区C	辖区D	辖区E	辖区F
口罩	$303030100552520001090000100$	$254025100502525003070000100$	$4050550204040005050000100$	$205020100304030002080000100$	$303030100801010004555000100$	$404010100106030002575000100$
防护服	$104030200206020001585000100$	$152545150304030002575000100$	$202040200305020001090000100$	$104040100205030007030000100$	$252525250304030006535000100$	$101050300305020005050000100$

Tab. 5 Probability matrix of demand state transfer for emergency supplies in each area

种类	辖区A	辖区B	辖区C	辖区D	辖区E	辖区F
口罩	$303030100552520001090000100$	$254025100502525003070000100$	$4050550204040005050000100$	$205020100304030002080000100$	$303030100801010004555000100$	$404010100106030002575000100$
防护服	$104030200206020001585000100$	$152545150304030002575000100$	$202040200305020001090000100$	$104040100205030007030000100$	$252525250304030006535000100$	$101050300305020005050000100$

Fig.5 Change curve of fitness function

Fig.6 Change curves of original state and control state

Tab. 6 Optimal allocation strategy of emergency medical supplies

辖区	阶段
辖区	1	2	3	4
A	F	K	K/F	—
B	K	F	F	K
C	K	F	K	K/F
D	K/F	K/F	K/F	K/F
E	F	K	K	F
F	K	K/F	—	K/F

Fig. 7 Statistics of total number of material allocation

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Allocation model of urban emergency medical supplies based on random evolution from perspective of resilience

韧性视角下基于随机演变的城市应急医疗物资配置模型

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