Stock return prediction via multi-scale kernel adaptive filtering

doi:10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2022030401

Journal of Computer Applications ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 1385-1393.DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2022030401

• China Conference on Data Mining 2022 (CCDM 2022) • Previous Articles

Stock return prediction via multi-scale kernel adaptive filtering

Xingheng TANG¹^,², Qiang GUO¹^,²(), Tianhui XU¹^,², Caiming ZHANG²^,³^,⁴

^1.School of Computer Science and Technology，Shandong University of Finance and Economics，Jinan Shandong 250014，China
^2.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Digital Media Technology （Shandong University of Finance and Economics），Jinan Shandong 250014，China
^3.School of Software，Shandong University，Jinan Shandong 250101，China
^4.Shandong Provincial Laboratory of Future Intelligence and Financial Engineering （Shandong Technology and Business University），Yantai Shandong 264005，China

Received:2022-03-30 Revised:2022-05-18 Accepted:2022-05-30 Online:2023-05-08 Published:2023-05-10
Contact: Qiang GUO
About author:TANG Xingheng， born in 1998， M. S. candidate. His research interests include data mining， time-series data prediction.
GUO Qiang， born in 1979， Ph. D.， professor. His research interests include data mining， time-series data analysis， computer vision.
XU Tianhui， born in 1998， M. S. candidate. Her research interests include anomaly detection in time-series data.
ZHANG Caiming， born in 1955， Ph. D.， professor. His research interests include computer graphics， computer vision， medical image processing， time-series data analysis.
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(61873145);Science and Technology Innovation Supporting Program for Distinguished Young Scholars of Shandong Province Higher Education Institutions(2019KJN045)

基于多尺度核自适应滤波的股票收益预测

汤兴恒¹^,², 郭强¹^,²(), 徐天慧¹^,², 张彩明²^,³^,⁴

^1.山东财经大学计算机科学与技术学院, 济南 250014
^2.山东省数字媒体技术重点实验室(山东财经大学), 济南 250014
^3.山东大学软件学院, 济南 250101
^4.山东省未来智能金融工程实验室(山东工商学院), 山东烟台 264005

通讯作者: 郭强
作者简介:汤兴恒（1998—），男，山东济宁人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向：数据挖掘、时序数据预测
郭强（1979—），男，山东淄博人，教授，博士，主要研究方向：数据挖掘、时序数据分析、计算机视觉 guoqiang@sdufe.edu.cn
徐天慧（1998—），女，山东临沂人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向：时序数据异常检测
张彩明（1955—），男，山东乳山人，教授，博士，主要研究方向：计算机图形学、计算机视觉、医学影像处理、时序数据分析。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61873145);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目(2019KJN045)

Abstract

Abstract:

In stock market， investors can predict the future stock return by capturing the potential trading patterns in historical data. The key issue for predicting stock return is how to find out the trading patterns accurately. However， it is generally difficult to capture them due to the influence of uncertain factors such as corporate performance， financial policies， and national economic growth. To solve this problem， a Multi-Scale Kernel Adaptive Filtering （MSKAF） method was proposed to capture the multi-scale trading patterns from past market data. In this method， in order to describe the multi-scale features of stocks， Stationary Wavelet Transform （SWT） was employed to obtain data components with different scales. The different trading patterns hidden in stock price fluctuations were contained in these data components. Then， the Kernel Adaptive Filtering （KAF） was used to capture the trading patterns with different scales to predict the future stock return. Experimental results show that compared with those of the prediction model based on Two-Stage KAF （TSKAF）， the Mean Absolute Error （MAE） of the results generated by the proposed method is reduced by 10%， and the Sharpe Ratio （SR） of the results generated by the proposed method is increased by 8.79%， verifying that the proposed method achieves better stock return prediction performance.

Key words: stock return prediction, Kernel Adaptive Filtering (KAF), trading pattern, multivariate data dependence, sequence learning

摘要：

在股票市场中，投资者可通过捕捉历史数据中潜在的交易模式实现对股票未来收益的预测，股票收益预测问题的关键在于如何准确地捕捉交易模式，但受公司业绩、金融政策以及国家经济增长等不确定性因素的影响，交易模式往往难以捕捉。针对该问题，提出一种多尺度核自适应滤波（MSKAF）方法，从过去的市场数据中捕捉多尺度交易模式。为刻画股票的多尺度特征，该方法采用平稳小波变换（SWT）得到不同尺度的数据分量，不同尺度的数据分量蕴含着股票价格波动背后潜在的不同交易模式，然后采用核自适应滤波（KAF）方法捕捉不同尺度的交易模式，以预测股票未来收益。实验结果表明，相较于基于两阶段核自适应滤波（TSKAF）的预测模型，所提方法的预测结果的平均绝对误差（MAE）减小了10%，夏普比率增加了8.79%，可见所提方法实现了更好的股票收益预测性能。

关键词: 股票收益预测, 核自适应滤波, 交易模式, 多元数据依赖, 序列学习

CLC Number:

TP181

Xingheng TANG, Qiang GUO, Tianhui XU, Caiming ZHANG. Stock return prediction via multi-scale kernel adaptive filtering[J]. Journal of Computer Applications, 2023, 43(5): 1385-1393.

汤兴恒, 郭强, 徐天慧, 张彩明. 基于多尺度核自适应滤波的股票收益预测[J]. 《计算机应用》唯一官方网站, 2023, 43(5): 1385-1393.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of MSKAF model

Fig. 2 Multi-level stationary wavelet decomposition

Fig. 3 Schematic diagram of outlier detection process

Fig. 4 Sampling process of stock time series

Fig. 5 Multivariate time series data dependence model

Tab. 1 Stock information used in experimental process

市场	股票代码	股票名称
DE	ADS	Adidas AG
	ALV	Allianz SE
	DPW	Deutsche Post AG
	DTE	Deutsche Telekom AG
	HEI	Heidelberg Cement AG
	LIN	Linde AG
	MRK	Merck KGaA
	SAP	SAP AG
UK	ADM	Admiral Group PLC
	AHT	Ashtead Group PLC
	BA	BAE Systems PLC
	BP	BP PLC
	CCL	Carnival PLC
	IAG	International Consolidated Airlines Group
	SKY	SKY PLC
	VOD	Vodafone Group PLC
US	AAL	American Airlines Group Inc
	AAPL	Apple Inc
	AMZN	Amazon Inc
	C	Citigroup Inc
	GOOGL	Alphabet In-CL A
	MSFT	Microsoft Corp
	SPY	SPDR S&P 500 Etf
	T	AT&T

Tab. 2 Parameter setting of comparison methods

参数	LSTM	VAR	VECM	NICE-KLMS	QKLMS	TSKAF	本文方法
时间窗口大小m	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
时间窗口滑动步长step	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
步长 $η$	—	—	—	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
带宽 $σ$	—	—	—	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
量化值 $λ$	—	—	—	0.06	0.4	—	—
质心距离 $β$	—	—	—	$2 σ$	—	—	—
异常点阈值 $δ$	—	—	—	—	—	10	—
低频序列异常点阈值 $δ l$	—	—	—	—	—	—	15
高频序列异常点阈值 $δ h$	—	—	—	—	—	—	10
信息量阈值 $ε$	—	—	—	—	—	0.000 1	0.000 1
网络层数 $L$	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
每层神经元数量 $N$	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
最大滞后次数 $ς$	—	15	—	—	—	—	—
滞后差异数 $A$	—	—	3	—	—	—	—
协整秩 $I$	—	—	0	—	—	—	—
超参数 $ν$	—	—	—	—	—	—	-6.5
超参数 $γ$	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9

Tab. 2 Parameter setting of comparison methods

参数	LSTM	VAR	VECM	NICE-KLMS	QKLMS	TSKAF	本文方法
时间窗口大小m	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
时间窗口滑动步长step	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
步长 $η$	—	—	—	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
带宽 $σ$	—	—	—	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
量化值 $λ$	—	—	—	0.06	0.4	—	—
质心距离 $β$	—	—	—	$2 σ$	—	—	—
异常点阈值 $δ$	—	—	—	—	—	10	—
低频序列异常点阈值 $δ l$	—	—	—	—	—	—	15
高频序列异常点阈值 $δ h$	—	—	—	—	—	—	10
信息量阈值 $ε$	—	—	—	—	—	0.000 1	0.000 1
网络层数 $L$	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
每层神经元数量 $N$	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
最大滞后次数 $ς$	—	15	—	—	—	—	—
滞后差异数 $A$	—	—	3	—	—	—	—
协整秩 $I$	—	—	0	—	—	—	—
超参数 $ν$	—	—	—	—	—	—	-6.5
超参数 $γ$	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9

Tab. 3 MAE values of different models in test phase

股票代码	LSTM	VAR	VECM	NICE-KLMS	QKLMS	TSKAF	本文方法
ADS	0.011 0	0.011 5	0.013 6	0.010 9	0.010 9	0.013 7	0.014 0
ALV	0.010 0	0.010 1	0.012 2	0.010 1	0.010 0	0.012 2	0.013 2
DPW	0.061 0	0.060 1	0.071 1	0.060 8	0.060 9	0.064 5	0.064 1
DTE	0.006 3	0.006 5	0.007 3	0.006 3	0.006 3	0.014 2	0.019 0
HEI	0.009 7	0.010 2	0.011 5	0.009 7	0.009 8	0.016 1	0.020 2
LIN	0.007 6	0.007 7	0.009 3	0.007 5	0.007 5	0.010 0	0.011 0
MRK	0.007 1	0.007 3	0.008 7	0.007 1	0.007 1	0.011 2	0.010 3
SAP	0.007 2	0.007 2	0.008 6	0.007 8	0.007 8	0.013 0	0.011 5
ADM	0.008 4	0.008 7	0.010 5	0.008 3	0.008 3	0.015 4	0.012 4
AHT	0.015 1	0.016 2	0.019 6	0.015 3	0.015 2	0.021 5	0.016 8
BA	0.009 1	0.009 3	0.010 6	0.008 7	0.008 8	0.013 4	0.016 7
BP	0.007 6	0.007 6	0.009	0.007 7	0.007 7	0.019 4	0.010 4
CCL	0.008 1	0.008 5	0.010 6	0.008 2	0.008 2	0.015 6	0.011 2
IAG	0.021 1	0.021 4	0.024 6	0.021 3	0.021 2	0.032 2	0.025 9
SKY	0.032 2	0.032 5	0.039 8	0.032 3	0.032 2	0.039 0	0.034 4
VOD	0.007 1	0.007 4	0.008 8	0.008 3	0.008 1	0.016 6	0.011 3
AAL	0.013 9	0.015 5	0.018 1	0.014 9	0.014 8	0.022 8	0.016 8
AAPL	0.008 5	0.008 8	0.009 5	0.008 6	0.008 5	0.022 4	0.026 1
AMZN	0.009 4	0.010 1	0.011 5	0.010 2	0.010 0	0.023 2	0.027 1
C	0.008 6	0.009 7	0.012 3	0.009 4	0.009 4	0.041 7	0.019 6
GOOGL	0.007 9	0.008 2	0.009 1	0.008 2	0.008 1	0.009 8	0.011 1
MSFT	0.007 6	0.007 8	0.009 0	0.007 4	0.007 5	0.010 0	0.012 1
SPY	0.003 9	0.004 1	0.005 0	0.003 8	0.003 8	0.005 7	0.006 8
T	0.008 2	0.008 1	0.009 6	0.008 1	0.008 2	0.010 5	0.011 2
均值	0.012	0.013	0.015	0.013	0.013	0.020	0.018
标准差	0.012	0.011	0.014	0.012	0.012	0.013	0.012

Tab. 4 MSE values of different models in test phase

股票代码	LSTM	VAR	VECM	NICE-KLMS	QKLMS	TSKAF	本文方法
ADS	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 4	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 4	0.000 4
ALV	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 3	0.000 4
DPW	0.013 4	0.013 4	0.017 2	0.013 5	0.013 2	0.014 0	0.013 8
DTE	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 3	0.000 3
HEI	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 4	0.000 4
LIN	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2
MRK	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2
SAP	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 3	0.000 2
ADM	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 4	0.000 3
AHT	0.000 5	0.000 5	0.000 7	0.000 5	0.000 5	0.000 8	0.000 6
BA	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 3	0.000 4
BP	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 5	0.000 2
CCL	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 4	0.000 2
IAG	0.000 9	0.000 9	0.001 1	0.000 9	0.000 9	0.001 6	0.001 2
SKY	0.002 8	0.002 8	0.003 7	0.002 8	0.002 8	0.003 4	0.003 0
VOD	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 4	0.000 2
AAL	0.000 4	0.000 4	0.000 5	0.000 4	0.000 4	0.000 8	0.000 5
AAPL	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 6	0.000 6
AMZN	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 3	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 7	0.000 6
C	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.000 2	0.001 9	0.000 5
GOOGL	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2
MSFT	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2
SPY	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 1	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 1	0.000 1
T	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 1	0.000 1	0.000 2	0.000 2
均值	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
标准差	0.003	0.003	0.004	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003

Tab. 5 SR values of different models in test phase

股票代码	LSTM	VAR	VECM	NICE-KLMS	QKLMS	TSKAF	本文方法
ADS	0.901 7	2.268 2	0.936 9	0.216 2	0.005 1	3.651 7	4.240 6
ALV	1.296 5	1.081 7	0.002 1	0.208 9	0.072 9	3.392 1	4.770 8
DPW	-0.752 2	-0.871 7	0.794 8	-1.002 7	-1.118 7	2.126 2	-0.183 0
DTE	0.268 8	0.766 5	1.257 1	-0.037 2	-0.123 6	1.946 3	5.290 4
HEI	0.857 4	1.390 8	2.007 7	0.208 9	-0.028 7	2.005 1	5.726 7
LIN	0.504 4	1.262 3	2.507 4	0.112 6	0.064 6	3.122 8	4.678 0
MRK	0.729 6	1.465 5	0.675 6	0.098 3	-0.025 7	3.620 5	4.125 8
SAP	0.740 5	1.860 4	2.480 6	0.049 7	-0.037 1	4.382 1	5.416 0
ADM	0.466 3	2.432 6	1.016 4	0.334 0	0.006 5	5.951 0	6.663 2
AHT	2.279 4	-1.324 6	-0.377 8	0.936 0	-1.204 8	5.361 4	2.932 4
BA	0.724 6	1.209 7	1.265 6	0.099 8	-0.057 9	2.195 2	5.177 1
BP	1.036 1	-0.027 5	-1.303 4	1.564 5	0.109 4	6.537 3	5.540 4
CCL	1.243 3	-0.743 5	-0.515 4	0.545 6	0.021 6	5.976 4	6.126 7
IAG	1.919 3	0.366 2	-1.349 7	-1.123 0	1.566 2	4.557 0	-0.644 6
SKY	-0.246 9	-1.289 8	-1.333 4	0.363 7	0.318 0	1.424 8	0.749 3
VOD	0.695 5	0.389 1	1.422 7	0.222 0	0.168 8	5.249 1	6.593 1
AAL	1.131 9	-1.144 0	-1.161 6	-0.577 4	0.494 6	5.882 0	3.847 8
AAPL	0.643 2	1.042 2	1.648 0	0.127 9	-0.127 4	2.664 4	5.001 1
AMZN	0.593 4	1.032 7	1.730 7	0.168 1	-0.020 5	1.549 9	3.922 9
C	0.975 0	1.655 6	-0.303 1	0.273 7	0.087 9	3.655 5	-2.387 9
GOOGL	0.511 8	1.333 4	1.283 5	0.118 5	0.045 9	2.971 0	4.546 8
MSFT	0.529 1	1.226 8	2.110 7	0.130 1	0.035 5	2.888 1	4.535 2
SPY	0.412 1	1.071 1	1.725 9	0.082 7	-0.097 7	1.784 6	3.073 8
T	1.294 7	1.368 1	1.182 8	0.143 8	-0.068 4	3.339 6	4.072 6
均值	0.770	0.722	0.738	0.136	0.004	3.593	3.909
标准差	0.606	1.061	1.207	0.517	0.484	1.562	2.319

Tab. 6 Influence of multi-scale decomposition layers on experimental results

分解层数k	SR
1	2.019
2	3.909
3	0.305

Fig. 6 Influence of m and step on experimental results

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Stock return prediction via multi-scale kernel adaptive filtering

基于多尺度核自适应滤波的股票收益预测

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