Abstract: Comparing with the wired networks, the guaranteed QoS is difficult to get in wireless networks, because of its limited bandwidth and variable channel. Network traffic prediction is important for network control and allocation. This paper presented a method. The deviation function of threshold value v was made by the method of variance analysis for wireless network traffic, which presented bases for selection threshold value. At last, according to the threshold crossing theory, the efficiency of the solution was validated through calculating the crossing intensity. The threshold value can implement better in predicting the traffic.

Key words: wireless network traffic, threshold value, derivation function, threshold crossing theory

摘要： 与有线计算机网络相比,由于无线网络的有限带宽和可变信道,使得无线网络提供业务 服务的QoS保证比有线网络来说更加困难。在提供QoS保证方面一个重要的因素是网络业务预报, 通过对无线网络业务超阈值数据采用方差分析法构造阈值v的偏差函数,为阈值选取提供一定的依 据,通过对无线网络业务到达数据对阈值穿越强度的计算验证了该方法在阈值选取方面的有效性。 可以根据该阈值更好地实现对无线网络业务的预报。

关键词: 无线网络业务, 阈值, 偏差函数, 阈交理论