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Time-interdependency-aware dynamic Bayesian network for traffic prediction
Huijie GUO, Tianfeng DOU, Zhenlin ZHANG, Kaiyuan QI, Dong WU, Zhijian QU, Zhao LI, Chongguang REN
Journal of Computer Applications    2026, 46 (5): 1507-1517.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2025050570
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Accurate traffic forecasting not only improves the efficiency and safety of the traffic system, but also promotes the sustainable social and economic development. Although a large number of studies have been devoted to modeling spatiotemporal correlation, existing methods still have significant limitations: most models tend to collectively predict the traffic flow of all regions in all time periods, ignoring spatio-temporal heterogeneity, especially the impact of the traffic status of the current region on the future traffic status of related regions. To address this problem, a Time-Interdependency-aware Dynamic Bayesian Network for traffic prediction (TIDBN) method was proposed. Using pre-trained modules, TIDBN employed a time-varying dynamic Bayesian network to capture the complex temporal relationships in time-series data arising from simultaneous and lagged effects. To further improve its ability to capture spatio-temporal correlation, a spatio-temporal attention mechanism was introduced for in-depth analysis. Subsequently, a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) was utilized to model the spatio-temporal topological structure, generating more accurate traffic predictions. The experimental results show that TIDBN performs excellently on two real traffic prediction tasks, especially for 1-hour prediction. On the PeMS-BAY dataset, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of TIDBN is 4% lower than that of the second-best baseline method.

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