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Reliability evaluation method of high-reliability products based on improved evidence fusion
Sirui WANG, Shijuan CHENG, Feimeng YUAN
Journal of Computer Applications    2023, 43 (7): 2140-2146.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2022060867
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In the reliability evaluation of many high-reliability and high-value products, product reliability often cannot be accurately evaluated due to the lack of objective test data. Aiming at this problem, a reliability evaluation method for high-reliability products based on improved evidence fusion was proposed in order to make full use of reliability information from different sources. Firstly, combining the characteristics of reliability engineering, the modified weight of each evidence was determined by the consistency of the evidence at credal level, pignistic level and the uncertainty of the evidence itself. Secondly, the optimal comprehensive weight was obtained by linear combination of each weight vector based on game theory. Finally, the Dempster’s combination rule was used to fuse the modified evidence, and the probability distribution of the product reliability index was obtained through the Pignistic probability transformation formula to complete the product reliability evaluation. The reliability evaluation results of one electronic device show that compared with the results of Jiang’s combination method and Yang’s combination method, which also consider multi-dimensional weight modification, the credibility of the conflict interval given by the proposed method is reduced by 69.6% and 54.6% respectively, and the credibility of the overall frame of discrimination given by the proposed method is reduced by 5.6% and 3.7% respectively. Therefore, in the application of reliability engineering, the performance of the proposed method in solving evidence conflict and reducing the uncertainty of fusion results is better than that of the comparison methods, and this method can fuse multi-source reliability information effectively and improve the credibility of the results of product reliability evaluation.

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