Effectiveness evaluation method based on statistical analysis of operations

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1087.2012.01157

Journal of Computer Applications ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (04): 1157-1160.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1087.2012.01157

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Effectiveness evaluation method based on statistical analysis of operations

CHENG Kai¹,ZHANG Rui¹,ZHANG Hong-jun¹,CHE Jun-hui²

1. Engineering Institute of Corps of Engineers, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210007, China
2. Nanjing Army Command College, Nanjing Jiangsu 210045, China

Received:2011-10-09 Revised:2011-11-17 Online:2012-04-20 Published:2012-04-01
Contact: CHENG Kai

基于统计分析的作战行动效能评估方法

程恺¹,张睿¹,张宏军¹,车军辉²

1. 解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院，南京 210007
2. 南京陆军指挥学院，南京 210045

通讯作者: 程恺
作者简介:程恺(1983-)，男，河南郑州人，博士研究生，主要研究方向：作战效能评估、作战模拟；
张睿(1977-)，男，山东威海人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向：军事建模与仿真；
张宏军(1963-)，男，江苏泰州人，教授，博士，主要研究方向：作战模拟与决策分析；
车军辉(1979-)，男，安徽六安人，讲师，博士，主要研究方向：军事情报。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目

Abstract

Abstract: The effect data of actions show a significant randomness because of lots of uncertain elements in the course of action. In order to explore the rules of warfare hidden behind the data, the effectiveness evaluation was studied based on statistical analysis method. The basic concept of action and its effectiveness were analyzed. With the simulation data produced by enhanced irreducible semi-autonomous adaptive combat neural simulation toolkit (EINSTein), a single, a group and multi group experimental methods were used to study the statistical characteristics of offensive actions and find out that to a party who has a combat advantage, compared with increased number of personnel, the increased radius of firepower can achieve better operational results. On this basis, an evaluation method of action effectiveness was proposed and validated with simulation data. Therefore, a feasible resolution is provided to evaluate the action effectiveness based on actual combat data.

Key words: action, effect data, EINSTein tool, statistics, effectiveness evaluation

摘要： 由于作战过程中不确定因素多，作战行动效果数据表现出显著的随机性。为了探索效果数据背后隐藏的作战规律，基于统计分析的方法研究作战行动效能的评估问题。分析了作战行动及其效能的基本概念，针对增强最简半自治适应性作战神经网络工具箱(EINSTein)产生的仿真数据采用单次、单组以及多组实验分析的手段，研究进攻行动效果数据的统计特征，发现对于具有作战优势的一方，相比通过增加作战人数而言，提高火力半径能够取得更好的作战效果。在此基础上，提出一种作战行动效能的评估方法，并结合仿真数据进行了验证，从而为基于实际训练效果数据的效能评估提供可行的解决方案。

关键词: 作战行动, 效果数据, EINSTein工具箱, 统计, 效能评估

CLC Number:

E917
TP391.9

CHENG Kai ZHANG Rui ZHANG Hong-jun CHE Jun-hui. Effectiveness evaluation method based on statistical analysis of operations[J]. Journal of Computer Applications, 2012, 32(04): 1157-1160.

程恺张睿张宏军车军辉. 基于统计分析的作战行动效能评估方法[J]. 计算机应用, 2012, 32(04): 1157-1160.

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Effectiveness evaluation method based on statistical analysis of operations

基于统计分析的作战行动效能评估方法

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