Abstract: Evidence theory is one of the main approaches to implement situation assessment based on rules. But evidence theory can result in paradox problem in conflicting evidence combination. Concerning this problem, by dissimilarity calculation, the importance of evidence was measured and original evidence was modified. A new approach based on the improved evidence theory was proposed. The new approach contained four steps including rules measurement, evidence modification, rules fusion and situation decision. The experiments show that the new approach can avoid paradox problem in the process of fusion based on evidence theory, and it is superior to typical approaches, such as Dempster approach, Yager approach and Leung approach, etc, in efficiency and accuracy of situation assesment.

Key words: situation assessment, fusion, dissimilarity, rule, evidence theory

摘要： 证据理论是实现基于规则的态势感知主要方法之一。然而，证据理论在多源多证据合成时存在悖论问题。针对此问题，通过相异度计算对证据重要性度量与修正，提出了一种基于改进证据理论的态势评估方法，该方法包括规则度量、证据修正、规则融合和态势决策等四个阶段。实验表明，该方法能够避免利用证据理论进行态势融合中的悖论问题，在态势评估效率和准确性等方面优于Dempster、Yager和Leung等典型方法。

关键词: 态势评估, 融合, 相异度, 规则, 证据理论