Abstract: Concerning the security issues in the current road transport logistics, an early-warning model of road transport logistics was proposed. First, five influence aspects of road transport logistics were discussed, including people, vehicles, roads, environment and carried goods. Then the early-warning indexes and the weight of each index were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the expert scoring method. Finally, based on the multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) method, the early-warning model of road transport logistics was constructed by selecting proper fuzzy operators. With the model, the early-warning information of road transport logistics could be obtained by calculating the early-warning level. The experiment shows that constructing the early-warning model of logistics transport by FCE is feasible. It realizes the early-warning in the transport process.

Key words: early-warning model, early-warning index, early-warning level, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE)

摘要： 针对当前公路物流运输的安全问题,提出构建公路物流运输预警模型的思想。从人、车、道路、环境和运载物品5个方面对公路物流运输的影响进行了全面分析。通过层次分析法和专家打分法确定公路物流运输的安全预警指标及其权重。采用多层次模糊综合评价法选择合适的模糊算子构建公路物流运输预警模型。利用此模型可以计算公路物流运输的安全预警级别,给出相应的预警信息。实验表明,采用模糊综合评价法构建物流运输预警模型是可行的,能够实现对运输过程的预警。

关键词: 预警模型, 预警指标, 预警级别, 层次分析法, 模糊综合评价