Abstract: Concerning the problem that has no formula to calculate the submarine distribution probability in call searching submarine, the paper gave out a formula to calculate the submarine distribution probability following the time changing for several typical cases. These typical cases included the initial position of the submarine obeying the normal distribution, the submarine heading obeying the uniform distribution in two-dimension plane, and the submarine velocity known or obeying the uniform distribution or obeying the Rayleigh distribution. Then the conclusion was proven right by Monte Carlo simulation. Also the joint probability density curves and the marginal probability density curves about the submarine distribution probability for several specific moments were given. The change of the submarine distribution probability in call searching submarine could be seen clearly through those curves, which is valuable to make the right search strategy in call searching submarine.

Key words: call searching submarine, distribution probability, uniform distribution, Rayleigh distribution, joint probability density, marginal probability density

摘要： 针对应召搜潜过程中潜艇分布概率的计算问题，推导了潜艇的初始位置服从正态分布、潜艇航向在二维平面内服从均匀分布、潜艇航速已知或服从已知分布的潜艇分布概率的计算方法，给出了潜艇航速服从均匀分布和瑞利分布等典型情况下，潜艇分布概率的计算公式，并通过蒙特卡罗方法验证了所推导公式的正确性，同时给出了部分时刻潜艇位置联合概率密度和边缘概率密度的计算结果。通过该计算结果可以清楚地看出应召搜潜中潜艇的分布概率随搜潜时间的变化情况，这对于在搜潜过程中制定正确的搜潜策略具有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 应召搜潜, 分布概率, 均匀分布, 瑞利分布, 联合概率密度, 边缘概率密度