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基于多尺度时空图卷积网络的公共交通出行需求预测——以出租车和共享单车为例

李欢欢1,黄添强1,丁雪梅1,罗海峰2,黄丽清1   

  1. 1. 福建师范大学
    2. 福州大学
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-02 修回日期:2023-09-20 发布日期:2023-10-26 出版日期:2023-10-26
  • 通讯作者: 李欢欢

Traffic demand prediction based on multi-scale spatial-temporal graph convolutional network — Taking taxi and sharing bike as examples

  • Received:2023-08-02 Revised:2023-09-20 Online:2023-10-26 Published:2023-10-26

摘要: 满足公众高质量出行需求是智能交通系统(ITS)的主要挑战之一。目前,针对公共交通出行需求预测问题,现有模型大多采用固定结构的图描述出行需求的空间相关性,忽略了出行需求在不同尺度下具有不同的空间依赖关系。针对上述问题,提出一种多尺度时空图卷积网络(MSTGCN)模型。该模型首先从全局尺度和局部尺度构建全局需求相似图和局部需求相似图,两种图可以捕获公共交通出行需求长期内较为稳定的全局特征和短期内动态变化的局部特征。利用图卷积网络提取两种图中的全局空间信息和局部空间信息,并引入注意力机制融合两种空间信息。为了拟合时间序列中潜藏的时间依赖关系,利用门控循环单元捕捉乘客需求的时变特征。采用纽约市出租车订单数据集和自行车订单数据集进行实验,结果表明MSTGCN模型在自行车订单数据集上均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和皮尔逊相关系数(PCC)达2.7886、1.7371、0.7992,在出租车订单数据集上RMSE、MAE、PCC达9.5734、5.8612、0.9631。可见,MSTGCN模型可以有效地挖掘公共交通出行需求的多尺度时空特性,对未来公共交通出行需求进行准确预测。

Abstract: High-quality public travel demand has become one of the major challenges for Intelligent Transportation Systems. For traffic demand prediction, most of existing models adopted graphs with fixed structure to describe the spatial correlation of traffic demand, ig-noring that traffic demand has different spatial dependence at different scales. Thus, a Multi-scale Spatial-temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSTGCN) model was proposed for traffic demand prediction. Firstly, global demand similarity graph and local demand simi-larity graph were constructed at global and local scales. Two graphs can capture long-term stable and short-term dynamic features of travel demand. Graph Convolutional Networks were introduced to extract global and local spatial information in two graphs. Besides, MSTGCN adopted attention mechanism to combine two kinds of spatial information adaptively. Moreover, gated recurrent unit was used to capture time-varying features of travel demand. Taking New York Citi (NYC) Bike and NYC Taxi as samples, experimental results show that Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) of MSTGCN were 2.7886, 1.7371, and 0.7992 on NYC Bike. And they were 9.5734, 5.8612, and 0.9631 on NYC Taxi. It proves that MSTGCN can effectively mine multi-scale spatial-temporal features of travel demand so as to accurately predict future travel demand.

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