关键词: 实时电子站牌信息, 路径选择, 混合Logit模型, 极大似然估计, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract: Along with the development of intelligent transportation information system, intelligent public transportation system is gradually popularized. Such information system is designed to provide all kinds of real-time information to transit passengers on the conditions of the network, and hence affect passengers’ travel choice behavior and improve passenger travel convenience and flexibility, so as to improve the social benefit and service level of the public transit system. Concerning the particularity of the transit network, with electronic bus stop information of Chengdu as an example, a questionnaire was designed to investigate passengers’ route choice behavior and travel intention. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and random utility theory were adopted，based on Logit model and mixed Logit model, route choice models were established, using characteristic variables of various options and passengers’ personal socio-economic attributes as explanatory variables. The method of Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood were used to estimate parameters. The results indicate that the differences of route choice behavior resulting from individual preferences can be reasonably interpreted by mixed Logit model, which helps us better understand the complexity of transit behavior, so as to guide the application.

Key words: real-time information at stops, route choice, mixed Logit model, maximum likelihood estimation, Monte Carlo simulation