Journal of Computer Applications ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 140-146.DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2015.01.0140

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Construction method for Bayesian network based on Dempster-Shafer/analytic hierarchy process

DU Yuanwei, SHI Fangyuan, YANG Na   

  1. School of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China
  • Received:2014-07-23 Revised:2014-09-17 Online:2015-01-01 Published:2015-01-26


杜元伟, 石方园, 杨娜   

  1. 昆明理工大学 管理与经济学院, 昆明650093
  • 通讯作者: 石方园
  • 作者简介:杜元伟(1981-),男,吉林白山人,教授,博士,主要研究方向:管理决策、知识融合;石方园(1990-),女,河南洛阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:管理决策;杨娜(1988-),女,河南南阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:管理决策.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71261011, 71462022);云南省应用基础研究计划项目(2011FZ021, 2013FB030);云南省教育厅重点项目(2012Z103);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目(2014cx05);昆明理工大学管理与经济学院热点(前沿)领域科研支撑计划项目(QY2014004).


Concerning the problem of lacking completeness and accuracy in the individuals inference information and scientificity in the overall integration results, which exists in the process of inferring Conditional Probability Table (CPT) in Bayesian network according to expert knowledge, this paper presented a method based on the Dempster-Shafer/Analytic Hierarchy Process (DS/AHP) to derive optimal conditional probability from the expert inference information. Firstly, the inferred information extraction mechanism was proposed to make judgment objects more intuitive and judgment modes more perfect by introducing the knowledge matrix of the DS/AHP method. Then, the construction process of Bayesian network was proposed following an inference sequence of "anterior to later". Finally, the traditional method and the presented method were applied to infer the missing conditional probability table in the same Bayesian network. The numerical comparison analyses show that the calculation efficiency can be improved and the accumulative total deviation can be decreased by 41% through the proposed method. Meanwhile, the proposed method is illustrated to be scientific, applicable and feasible.

Key words: Bayesian network, Dempster-Shafer/Analytic Hierarchy Process (DS/AHP), inference information extraction, Dempster combination rule, knowledge matrix, Conditional Probability Table (CPT)



关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 证据理论/层次分析法, 推断信息提取, Dempster组合规则, 知识矩阵, 条件概率表

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