Abstract: In the related research of Event Based Social Networks (EBSNs), it is difficult to predict the participation of social events based on event description. The related studies are very limited, and the research difficulty mainly comes from the evaluation subjectivity of event description and limitations of language modeling algorithms. To solve these problems, first the concepts of successful event, similar event and event similarity were defined. Based on these concepts, the social data collected from the Meetup platform was extracted. At the same time, the analysis and prediction methods based on Lasso regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Gated Recurrent Neural Network (GRNN) were separately designed. In the experiment, part of the extracted data was selected to train the three models, and the remaining data was used for the analysis and prediction. The results showed that, compared with the events without event description, the prediction accuracy of the events processed by the Lasso regression model was improved by 2.35% to 3.8% in different classifiers, and the prediction accuracy of the events processed by the GRNN model was improved by 4.5% to 8.9%, and the result of the CNN model processing was not ideal. This study proves that event description can improve event participation, and the GRNN model has the highest prediction accuracy among the three models.

Key words: Event Based Social Networks (EBSNs), event description, Lasso regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Gated Recurrent Neural Network (GRNN)

摘要： 在基于事件的社会网络（EBSNs）的相关研究中，基于事件描述来预测社交事件参与度是难点问题。相关的研究非常有限，研究难度主要来自对事件描述评价的主观性和语言建模算法的局限性。针对这些问题，首先定义了成功事件、相似事件和事件相似度等概念，并基于这些概念将采集自Meetup平台的社交数据进行抽取，同时分别设计了基于拉索回归、卷积神经网络（CNN）和门控循环神经网络（GRNN）的分析预测方法。实验时，先从抽取过的数据中选取部分数据训练三种模型，然后用剩余的数据进行分析预测。结果显示，相较于不含事件描述的事件，经过拉索回归模型处理的事件在不同分类器下的预测准确率可提高2.35%~3.8%，经过GRNN模型处理的事件在不同分类器下的预测准确率可提高4.5%~8.9%，而CNN模型的处理结果不理想。证明了事件描述能够提高事件参与度，GRNN模型在三个模型中预测准确率最高。

关键词: 基于事件的社会网络, 事件描述, 拉索回归, 卷积神经网络, 门控循环神经网络