关键词: 前景理论, 出行方式选择, 情景, 参照点, 前景值

Abstract:

Concerning the influence of resident's psychological factors on travel mode choice in the actual travel, a travel mode choice model based on prospect theory was established and a choice method more according to human thinking habits was put forward. Considering psychological reference points of travel time and travel cost comprehensively, satisfied travel mode to resident was obtained. The influence of reference point on travel mode was analyzed by comparing changes of comprehensive prospect value under different reference points. Finally an example gave the application of this travel mode choice method. The experimental results show that residents in the minority whose expectation of travel time is lower prefer bus travel, although the comprehensive prospect value changes of taxi and private car are identical. More residents tend to use private car mode, which is consistent with the fact. The proposed method provides a new way to predict resident travel mode.

Key words: prospect theory, travel mode choice, scene, reference point, prospect value