Abstract:

In the smart grid, the development of electric power Demand Response (DR) brings great change to the traditional power utilization mode. Combined with real-time electricity price, consumers can adjust their power utilization mode by their energy demand. This makes load forecasting more complicated. The multi-input and two-output Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) was proposed to preliminarily predict the load and price at the same time. Considering the interaction between the real-time electricity price and load, the fuzzy recursive inference system based on data mining technology was adopted to simulate the game process of the forecasting of the price and load, and then the preliminary forecast results of multi-variable LS-SVM prediction algorithm were recursively corrected until the forecasting results were tending towards stability. Multi-variable LS-SVM can avoid running into local optima and has an excellent capacity of generalization, the improved association rules mining algorithm and loop predictive control algorithm have good completeness and robustness, and can correct the forecasting result approximately in every real situation. Simulation results of the actual power system show that the proposed method has better application effects.

Key words: smart grid, real-time electricity price, load forecast, multi-variable Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), association rules mining algorithm, fuzzy recursive inference system

摘要：

智能电网环境下,电力需求响应的发展给传统用电模式带来重大变化,用户可以根据电能需求结合实时电价调整用电模式,这使得负荷预测变得更加复杂。通过相似日负荷序列局部形相似计算,选取样本数据,采用多输入双输出的最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM),对负荷和价格进行同时预测,得到初步预测结果。考虑需求响应条件下实时电价与负荷之间的相互影响,采用基于数据挖掘技术的模糊循环推理系统模拟人的思维过程,通过挖掘电价变化量、负荷变化量等变量之间的关联规则,模拟电价与负荷预测之间存在的博弈过程,对多变量最小二乘支持向量机预测算法的初步预测结果进行循环修改,直至负荷和电价预测结果趋于稳定。多变量最小二乘支持向量机不存在容易陷入局部最优等问题,并且有良好的泛化能力,基于改进的模糊关联规则挖掘算法和循环预测控制算法具有良好的完备性和鲁棒性,能够逼近现实环境的各种可能情况,修正负荷预测结果。针对某电网的实际预测结果表明,该方法具有较好的预测效果。

关键词: 智能电网, 实时电价, 负荷预测, 多变量最小二乘支持向量机, 关联规则挖掘算法, 模糊循环推理系统