Abstract: In order to solve the problems of high abstraction degree of network warfare and insufficient means of simulation and effectiveness evaluation of network warfare under the condition of informationization, a method of network warfare simulation and effectiveness evaluation integrating multiple indexes of both attack and defense sides was proposed. Firstly, for the network warfare attacker, four kinds of attack methods were introduced to attack the network; and for the network defender, the network node structure, content importance and emergency response ability were introduced as the defense indicators of the network. Then, the network warfare effectiveness evaluation model was established by integrating PageRank algorithm and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method into Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm. Finally, by defining the node damage effectiveness curve, the evaluation results of residual effectiveness and damage effectiveness in the whole network warfare attack and defense system were obtained. The simulation results show that the effectiveness evaluation model of network warfare can effectively evaluate the operational effectiveness of both attack and defense sides of network warfare, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the effectiveness evaluation method of network warfare.

Key words: network warfare, effectiveness evaluation, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, PageRank

摘要： 为解决信息化条件下的网络战抽象程度过高、网络战的仿真和效能评估手段不够丰富的问题，提出了一种融合攻防双方多种指标的网络战仿真和效能评估的方法。首先，对于网络战攻击方，引入4类攻击方式对网络进行打击；对于网络防御方，引入网络节点结构、内容重要程度和应急反应能力作为网络的防御指标；然后，通过将PageRank算法和模糊综合评价法融入到LightGBM算法中，建立了网络战效能评估模型；最后，通过定义节点毁伤效能曲线，得到整个网络战攻防体系中的剩余效能和毁伤效能评估结果。仿真实验表明：网络战效能评估模型可以对网络战攻防双方的作战效能进行有效的评估，验证了网络战效能评估方法的合理性和可行性。

关键词: 网络战, 效能评估, LightGBM, 模糊综合评价, PageRank