关键词: 雷电临近预报, 定位资料, 聚类分析, OPTICS算法, 移动趋势

Abstract: Concerning the uneven density distributed lightning location data, a lightning nowcasting model based on Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm was proposed. The model analyzed continuous period of lightning location data with OPTICS. It effectively filtered out the sparse points that would affect the lightning clouds distribution. Based on the lightning clusters produced by OPTICS, the model used dilate-corrode algorithm to restore real distribution of lightning clouds. Then future lightning location area was predicted according to the moving trend of lightning clouds. Furthermore, to overcome the traditional algorithm's drawback of consuming longer time, adjacent list and improved seed-list updating strategy were introduced into the OPTICS algorithm. The experimental results show that OPTICS based model is more applicable for lightning nowcasting, and achieves higher accuracy and lower time consumption.

Key words: lightning nowcasting, location data, clustering analysis, Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm, moving trend