Abstract: The forecasting model about aviation ammunition storage-transportation system with automatic regulatory system in aircraft carrier to replenish the required aviation ammunition timely was established. This paper studied the storage and transportation system about aviation ammunition, built the causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams about every element impacting the storage-transportation efficiency of aviation ammunition with the method of system dynamics and simulated by the system dynamics software Vensim PLE 5.9. The simulation results show that this model can predict the storage and transportation trend about aviation ammunition under the condition of perturbation, which correspond with the data and conclusion of exercises with aircraft ammunition storage system.

Key words: aviation ammunition, storage and transportation, system dynamics, model

摘要： 为解决舰载机所需的航空弹药按时补充问题，建立了带有自动调节系统的载机军舰航空弹药贮运系统的预测模型。对航空弹药贮运系统进行研究，采用系统动力学方法，构建影响航空弹药贮运效率的各元素因果回路图与存量流量图及预测模型，并以系统动力学软件Vensim PLE 5.9为平台进行建模仿真。运行结果表明，该模型在扰动条件下进行航空弹药贮运趋势的预测与航空弹药贮运系统演练得出的数据与结论相符。

关键词: 航空弹药, 贮运系统, 系统动力学, 模型