关键词: 交通事故预测模型, 交通事故数据, 时空特性, 深度学习, 交通安全

Abstract:

To address the problems of limited information expression， imbalance， and dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics of accident data， an accident prediction model fusing heterogeneous traffic situations was proposed. In which， the semantic enhancement was completed by the spatio-temporal state aggregation module through traffic events and weather features representing dynamic traffic situations， and the historical multi-period spatio-temporal states of four types of regions （single region， adjacent region， similar region， and global region） were aggregated； the dynamic local and global spatio-temporal characteristics of accident data were captured by the spatio-temporal relation capture module from both micro- and macro-perspectives； and the multi-region and multi-angle spatio-temporal states were further fused by the spatio-temporal data fusion module， and the accident prediction task in the next period was realized. Experimental results on five city datasets of US-Accident demonstrate that the average F1-scores of the proposed model for accident， non-accident， and weighted average samples are 85.6%， 86.4%， and 86.6% respectively， which are improved by 14.4%， 5.6%， and 9.3% in the three metrics compared to the traditional Feedforward Neural Network （FNN）， indicating that the proposed model can effectively suppresses the influence of accident data imbalance on experimental results. Constructing an efficient accident prediction model helps to analyze the safety situation of road traffic， reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents and improve the traffic safety.

Key words: traffic accident prediction model, traffic accident data, spatio-temporal characteristic, deep learning, traffic safety